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Time is Short: Climate Change is Faster than Previously Predicted

Posted By mike On April 3, 2009 @ 9:23 am In Small Foot Print | 1 Comment

I think the critical issue covered in this article is that earlier models of arctic ice melt were too conservative. I also think that the earlier models were too conservative in part because they neglected or could not be constructed to factor in complex and subtle feedback loops.

This article talks about rising air temperature in the Arctic, declining sea ice, but makes no mention of the potential tipping point/feedback loop of methane and other greenhouse gases that are likely to be released by the warming of the Arctic.

Most climate scientists have failed us by being too cautious in their modeling and in their public pronouncements on climate change. There are exceptions, certainly James Hansen has spoken out, but this is an existential crisis and when that becomes apparent to more people on the planet, the question will be raised: why weren’t the stakes and risks communicated effectively?
[1] clipped from [2] news.yahoo.com
Study: Arctic sea ice melting faster than expected

WASHINGTON – Arctic sea ice is melting so fast most of it could be gone in 30 years. A new analysis of changing conditions in the region, using complex computer models of weather and climate, says conditions that had been forecast by the end of the century could occur much sooner.
In this July 11, 2008 photo, a giant glacier is seen making its way to the

A change in the amount of ice is important because the white surface reflects sunlight back into space. When ice is replaced by dark ocean water that sunlight can be absorbed, warming the water and increasing the warming of the planet.

“Due to the recent loss of sea ice, the 2005-2008 autumn central Arctic surface air temperatures were greater than 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above” what would be expected, the new study reports.

That amount of temperature increase had been expected by the year 2070.

They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles normally to 620,000 square miles within 30 years.
  [3] blog it

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URL to article: http://smallblueplanet.org/2009/04/03/time-is-short-climate-change-is-faster-than-previously-predicted/

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[2] news.yahoo.com: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090403/ap_on_sc/sci_sea_ice
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